Indian economy is one of the fastest-growing economies in the world. Amidst the ongoing economic slowdown, there is good news for the Indian trade sector. A report from DHL Global Trade Barometer released by DHL states that India is the only country out of seven big economies to sustain the trade growth over the three months.
It is an early indicator of global trade developments driven using artificial Intelligence and Big Data, predicting mildly positive growth for Indian trade with the country’s Index rising five points to 54. The affirmative outlook is driven mainly by an uptake in ocean imports of Basic and Industrial Raw Materials and Chemicals and Products, paired with a moderate revival in air exports of Consumer Fashion Goods. In total, ocean trade increased by 10 points, maintaining India’s positive outlook even as air trade forecasts experience relative weakness.
The Barometer’s statistics also suggest that world trade is expected to continue at a gradual pace but a further contract for the next three months, taken by a minor dip in both air and containerized ocean trade.
In opposite to earlier quarters this year, the downward trend in trade growth remains mostly stable, neither indicating an acceleration of the decrease nor a bottoming out of the contractionary movement. All seven countries monitored by DHL Global Trade Barometer received indexes below 50 points except for India, where the report forecasts gradual growth of five points to 54 points for India. While the UK and Japan recorded the highest losses in this period.
“According to the DHL Global Trade Barometer, the year will probably end with moderate world trade. However, we’ve to bear in mind where we come from: The rapid growth world trade has undergone in recent years was like climbing Mount Everest. Now, we are on the descent, but we are still breathing altitude air,” Tim Scharwath, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding, Freight, says. “A countless number of stable trade relations continue to flourish worldwide, despite smoldering trade conflicts and geopolitical uncertainties.” (Source: https://www.asiaone.com/business/indias-trade-growth-remains-buoyant-thanks-strong-ocean-trade)
What is DHL Global Trade Barometer?
The DHL Global Trade Barometer and predict the indicator of the current and future states of global trades, giving a deep understanding of the macroeconomic factors that affect it. By analyzing the global supply chain through large amounts of logistics data, trends within industry sectors can be identified and insights then provided into those that are on the rise or fall. It is an important tool for businesses dealing in international trade, with index values above 50 indicating positive development, while anything below that signals a decline in world trade.
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